US revenues of Iluvien are estimated at 250 mil. USD, if we assume a 30% profit margin and a 20% profit share to pSivida (PSVD), Alimera could generate 60 million USD in net profits from USA alone, which under it's current market cap would bring a forward P/E of 2.2. Assuming a conservative P/E valuation of 10, the market cap would be 600 million, implying a 361% increase from current prices. This doesn't take into account possible future growth or expansion to new markets. There are approximately 3 million people suffering from DME in US and Europe right now.
The stock has a market cap of 141 mil. USD, short float stands at 4.36%, and there have been several insider purchases in the past months. If their drug delivers results shown in Phase 2, the stock offers tremendous growth potential for years ahead and is significantly undervalued. There is always a risk of failure, but by purchasing the best 5-6 stocks with huge potential, one can mitigate the risk contribution of a single stock and still capture a large part of upside.
ACRX has a market cap of 430 million, short float of 11% and significant insider buying in the last few moths. Since Zalviso is in a late stage of development and Gruenenthal showed interest in marketing the product, I believe the stock is set for large gains in 2014.
OncoMed is already cooperating with Bayer and GlaxoSmithKline, but recently signed a deal with Celgene (CELG), to jointly develop and commercialize 6 product candidates including the top one, demcizumab. Celgene will help with development and sales of products, for which OncoMed receives royalty payments: 50/50 in USA and double-digit revenue share in worldwide markets. Celgene will pay 155 million upfront, as well as buy 22 million worth of OMED stock. Most importantly, the deal includes payments for achieving certain regulatory and sales milestones: 790 million for demcizumab and around 440 million for each of the other five programs. If everything goes well, OncoMed will receive 3 billion dollars just from milestone payments! Celgene certainly sees huge potential in their innovative therapies, and will provide much needed capital and resources for development and marketing. Joint ventures in the pharmaceutical sector always smell of opportunity, reminds me of one of the best deals between Pharmacyclics and Johnson & Johnson
OMED sells for 660 million USD, with a 5% short float and no recent insider buying. Following the release of collaboration with Celgene, OMED stock shot up almost 100% with volume higher than on IPO day.