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Full list of undervalued/overvalued stocks - July

7/21/2014

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I have created a three-stage DCF model to value more than 3000 stocks. The valuation was done with the following assumptions:

- Growth for the first 5 years - The lower of estimated  5-year growth rate or past 5-year sales growth rate
- Growth for the next 5 years - Half of the above mentioned rate
- Terminal growth rate of 2%
- Discount rates of 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%

The DCF valuation model is only feasible for companies with at least slightly predictable cash flow, it doesn't work  well in cyclical or biotechnology sectors, or for companies undergoing rapid change. As estimating a discount rate for each company is more art than science, I have used several discount rates to show potential undervaluation/overvaluation. Only companies with a profit this year, or estimated profit next year were valued. As I used a general formula for all stocks, there might be some extremes due to their growth rates/estimated profits.

DOWNLOAD THE VALUATION OF MORE THAN 3000 STOCKS

Below are some notable examples with upside/downside based on various discount rates (8,10,12,14):
Ticker            Name                                                                      8%                    10%                          12%                     14%
AAPL
AMZN
BAC
BBL
BHP
BP
BRK-A
BTI
BUD
C
CHL
CMCSA
COP
CSCO
CVX
DIS
FB
GE
GILD
GOOGL
GSK
HD
HSBC
IBM
INTC
JNJ
JPM
KO
MRK
MSFT
NVS
ORCL
PBR
PEP
PFE
PG
PM
PTR
QCOM
RIO
RY
SAN
SAP
SLB
SNY
T
TM
TOT
TSM
UL
UN
UTX
V
VZ
WFC
WMT
XOM
Apple Inc.
Amazon.com Inc.
Bank of America Corporation
BHP Billiton plc
BHP Billiton Limited
BP plc
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
British American Tobacco plc
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
Citigroup Inc.
China Mobile Limited
Comcast Corporation
ConocoPhillips
Cisco Systems, Inc.
Chevron Corporation
The Walt Disney Company
Facebook, Inc.
General Electric Company
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Google Inc.
GlaxoSmithKline plc
The Home Depot, Inc.
HSBC Holdings plc
IBM
Intel Corporation
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Coca-Cola Company
Merck & Co. Inc.
Microsoft Corporation
Novartis AG
Oracle Corporation
Petroleo Brasileiro
Pepsico, Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
The Procter & Gamble Company
Philip Morris International, Inc.
PetroChina Co. Ltd.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
Rio Tinto plc
Royal Bank of Canada
Banco Santander, S.A.
SAP SE
Schlumberger Limited
Sanofi
AT&T, Inc.
Toyota Motor Corporation
Total SA
Taiwan Semiconductor
Unilever plc
Unilever NV
United Technologies Corp.
Visa Inc.
Verizon Communications Inc.
Wells Fargo & Company
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
94%
-34%
35%
9%
24%
44%
20%
14%
21%
53%
-6%
75%
9%
45%
22%
-7%
147%
-3%
213%
75%
15%
2%
-26%
44%
37%
-2%
42%
5%
7%
18%
28%
99%
123%
11%
9%
-16%
12%
34%
127%
48%
16%
14%
35%
56%
27%
10%
103%
107%
117%
-6%
0%
1%
38%
33%
62%
22%
6%
63%
-46%
16%
-7%
6%
23%
1%
-3%
2%
31%
-19%
47%
-7%
24%
4%
-21%
103%
-17%
162%
46%
-2%
-13%
-36%
24%
16%
-16%
22%
-11%
-9%
0%
9%
68%
90%
-6%
-7%
-28%
-4%
15%
91%
27%
-1%
-2%
14%
31%
9%
-5%
72%
75%
83%
-20%
-15%
-14%
16%
13%
38%
4%
-9%
39%
-55%
0%
-20%
-9%
6%
-14%
-17%
-13%
13%
-30%
24%
-20%
6%
-10%
-32%
69%
-28%
120%
23%
-15%
-25%
-45%
7%
-1%
-28%
5%
-24%
-22%
-14%
-7%
43%
63%
-20%
-20%
-38%
-18%
-1%
61%
10%
-14%
-15%
-3%
11%
-7%
-18%
47%
49%
55%
-31%
-27%
-25%
-2%
-3%
18%
-11%
-21%
18%
-62%
-13%
-31%
-21%
-8%
-26%
-28%
-25%
-1%
-39%
6%
-30%
-8%
-21%
-41%
40%
-37%
87%
5%
-26%
-35%
-52%
-7%
-15%
-37%
-8%
-35%
-33%
-26%
-20%
22%
41%
-31%
-30%
-46%
-29%
-14%
37%
-5%
-25%
-26%
-16%
-5%
-19%
-29%
26%
29%
32%
-41%
-37%
-35%
-16%
-16%
2%
-23%
-31%
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