Combining Value, Growth and Momentum
10x Stocks - Searching for multibaggers
  • Blog
  • Performance
  • Investment strategy
  • About

Full list of undervalued/overvalued Indian stocks - July

7/25/2014

3 Comments

 
I have created a three-stage DCF model to value more than 500 Indian stocks. The valuation was done with the following assumptions:

- Growth for the next 5 years - Half of the past 5-year profit or sales growth (whichever is lower)
- Growth for the years 5-10 - Half of the above mentioned rate
- Terminal growth rate of 2%
- Discount rates of 10%, 12%, 14% (for smaller companies it's best to use 14%, for larger ones use 10-12%)
- profit for the last 12 months

FULL LIST OF 540 UNDERVALUED / OVERVALUED INDIAN STOCKS

Valuing so many stocks is a challenge, given that each one has unique fundamentals and expected growth. I just did a calculation of what are the companies worth, if they can maintain only half of their past growth in the future. DCF models work only with companies which have stable cash flow and are usually in a mature phase. Companies with negative earnings were omitted. Some values might be unreliable, if there is a big difference in expected growth rates in the past and analyst projections for the future.

Here are some notable examples (using discount rates of 10%, 12%, 14%), a negative value means a stock is overvalued, positive is undervalued:
Name                                                                        Market cap (Rs.Cr.)      10%                    12%                         14%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.
Hero MotoCorp Ltd.
Bajaj Auto Ltd.
UltraTech Cement Ltd.
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.
Reliance Industries Ltd.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
ITC Ltd.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.
Axis Bank Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Hindustan Zinc Ltd.
NMDC Ltd.
NTPC Ltd.
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.
Tata Steel Ltd.
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
Tech Mahindra Ltd.
Infosys Ltd.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.
Cairn India Ltd.
Wipro Ltd.
Asian Paints Ltd.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.
State Bank of India
ICICI Bank Ltd.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.
Housing Development Finance Corp.
Coal India Ltd.
Idea Cellular Ltd.
Bharti Airtel Ltd.
Sesa Sterlite Ltd.
70,965.87
75,485.73
50,687.85
61,025.78
68,171.94
80,342.52
336,571.47
139,039.98
283,491.81
57,836.79
94,124.44
202,788.53
71,259.68
70,670.78
123,435.14
70,443.49
55,185.23
57,072.66
50,871.48
193,464.70
508,321.82
60,442.95
142,308.90
59,316.93
154,967.18
190,913.09
173,989.20
72,322.98
162,380.38
243,339.31
53,710.84
141,747.80
88,401.48
24%
-37%
-31%
4%
-34%
78%
-8%
-62%
-44%
59%
27%
-23%
91%
41%
44%
30%
44%
-6%
-16%
-14%
-15%
272%
-36%
-61%
-72%
-14%
401%
-54%
-1%
64%
-27%
35%
-3%

5%
-46%
-41%
-12%
-44%
54%
-20%
-67%
-52%
36%
8%
-35%
63%
21%
24%
11%
24%
-21%
-28%
-26%
-28%
217%
-45%
-67%
-76%
-26%
314%
-60%
-16%
39%
-38%
12%
-17%

-10%
-54%
-49%
-24%
-52%
34%
-31%
-72%
-59%
16%
-7%
-44%
39%
4%
7%
-5%
7%
-33%
-38%
-36%
-38%
173%
-52%
-72%
-80%
-35%
244%
-65%
-28%
18%
-47%
-7%
-29%

3 Comments
vishwanath
7/24/2014 08:24:34 pm

Reply
sourabh
9/28/2014 04:35:44 am

if you can, where does valuation of arrow coated stands?

Reply
vinothkumar
11/7/2014 02:08:00 pm

dear sir,
kindly update the recent FULL LIST OF 540 UNDERVALUED / OVERVALUED INDIAN STOCKS..thanks in advance

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    To make money in stocks you must have the "the vision to see them, the courage to buy them and the patience to hold them". And patience is the rarest of the three.  Thomas Phelps

    Follow @BestStocksNow

    Categories

    All
    Best Stocks Of 2013
    Best Stocks Of 2014
    HK Stocks
    Indian Stocks
    Long
    Uk Stocks
    US Stocks

    Archives

    April 2021
    January 2021
    September 2020
    August 2020
    May 2020
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    February 2019
    May 2018
    August 2017
    July 2016
    February 2016
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.